Sci：全球疫苗分配不均导致新冠病例增加,促新变种出现

顾汉现

全球疫苗分配不均或导致新冠病例增加，促进新变种出现

科研圈

2021/08/20

论文

论文标题：Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2
作者：Caroline E. Wagner , Chadi M. Saad-Roy , Sinead E. Morris , Rachel E. Baker , Michael J. Mina , Jeremy Farrar , Edward C. Holmes , Oliver G. Pybus , Andrea L. Graham , Ezekiel J. Emanuel , Simon A. Levin , C. Jessica E. Metcalf , Bryan T. Grenfell

期刊：Science
发表时间：2021/08/17
数字识别码：10.1126/science.abj7364
摘要：Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal among countries. To examine the potential epidemiological and evolutionary impacts of ‘vaccine nationalism’, we extend previous models to include simple scenarios of stockpiling between two regions. In general, when vaccines are widely available and the immunity they confer is robust, sharing doses minimizes total cases across regions. A number of subtleties arise when the populations and transmission rates in each region differ, depending on evolutionary assumptions and vaccine availability. When the waning of natural immunity contributes most to evolutionary potential, sustained transmission in low access regions results in an increased potential for antigenic evolution, which may result in the emergence of novel variants that affect epidemiological characteristics globally. Overall, our results stress the importance of rapid equitable vaccine distribution for global control of the pandemic.

所属学科：
流行病学
病毒学
公共卫生
美国普林斯顿大学（Princeton University）和加拿大麦吉尔大学（McGill University）的一项合作研究发现，疫苗分配不均可能会提高全球新冠病例的数量，并造成新变种的出现。研究人员预测了在一系列疫苗剂量制度、疫苗接种率和与免疫反应有关的假设下新冠病例的发病率。他们在两个模型区域进行了预测：疫苗高普及率地区和低普及率地区。这些模型还允许这些地区相互结合，例如病例相互输送，或其中一个地区的病毒发生变异。预测结果表明，增加疫苗共享降低了低普及率地区的病例数，并且如果低普及率地区中病例数持续升高，将提高病毒进化的潜力。该研究强调了公平、快速的全球疫苗分配的重要性和紧急性。相关论文 8 月 17 日发表于《科学》（Science）。（Science，Princeton University）

https://science.sciencemag.org/c ... /16/science.abj7364

https://www.linkresearcher.com/t ... 6-9061-911ba3a09182



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