Nat:欧洲COVID-19新变异谱系进入复燃 加强防控力度策

顾汉现

解析欧洲COVID-19复苏的引入和持久性  加强防控力度策

领研网

2021/08/08

论文
论文标题：Untangling introductions and persistence in COVID-19 resurgence in Europe
作者：Lemey, Philippe, Ruktanonchai, Nick, Hong, Samuel L., Colizza, Vittoria, Poletto, Chiara, Van den Broeck, Frederik, Gill, Mandev S., Ji, Xiang, Levasseur, Anthony, Oude Munnink, Bas B., Koopmans, Marion, Sadilek, Adam, Lai, Shengjie, Tatem, Andrew J., Baele, Guy, Suchard, Marc A., Dellicour, Simon

期刊：Nature
发表时间：2021/06/30
数字识别码：10.1038/s41586-021-03754-2
摘要：After the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting in late summer 2020 that was deadlier and more difficult to contain1. Relaxed intervention measures and summer travel have been implicated as drivers of the second wave2. Here we build a phylogeographical model to evaluate how newly introduced lineages, as opposed to the rekindling of persistent lineages, contributed to the resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe. We inform this model using genomic, mobility and epidemiological data from 10 European countries and estimate that in many countries more than half of the lineages circulating in late summer resulted from new introductions since 15 June 2020. The success in onward transmission of newly introduced lineages was negatively associated with the local incidence of COVID-19 during this period. The pervasive spread of variants in summer 2020 highlights the threat of viral dissemination when restrictions are lifted, and this needs to be carefully considered in strategies to control the current spread of variants that are more transmissible and/or evade immunity. Our findings indicate that more effective and coordinated measures are required to contain the spread through cross-border travel even as vaccination is reducing disease burden.

所属学科：
流行病学

（导读 郭怿暄）2020年春第一波SARS-CoV-2疫情后，欧洲在夏末经历了第二波疫情。本研究建立系统地理学模型，探究是新引入病毒株还是已经存在病毒株的死灰复燃导致了欧洲COVID-19疫情的反扑。分析发现超过夏末超过一半的传播中的病毒株是6月15日后的新引入的。新病毒株的传播与当地当时COVID-19发病率负相关。变异株的广泛传播提示限制措施取消后病毒的播散风险，亟需认真考虑防控高传染性病毒株的措施。

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03754-2

https://www.linkresearcher.com/t ... a-9eb3-ec448bf33d62



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