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发表于 2021-8-29 15:21:22
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本帖最后由 邓文龙 于 2021-8-29 15:22 编辑
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Hantao Gu
21-4月5日 ·
分享对象： 公开
预测大约7年后的全世界下一次呼吸道病毒传染病
HANTAO GU 2021.2.4初稿 （第一次修改于21.3.20，第二次修改于21.3.27）
我预测、全球人类下一次呼吸道病毒传染病的大流行或小流行、大约可能在2029年（或2030年）12月22日的前后（大概是中国、朝韩、越南等国农历节气的冬至前后）。这个时间、由于太阳系行星位置、地球公转自转等原因、北半球日照时间最短、太阳光线最斜、北半球气温和恒温动物身体近表面温度下降、尤其人类等灵长目动物的鼻腔、咽喉部等上部呼吸道温度会低于摄氏34度、甚至有时为33度以下、或更低、又空气较为干燥、湿度低、局部免疫力、防御能力明显低下。又2021后几年过去了、人类不少人已渐渐忘记了新冠病毒肺炎危险性、行为上放松了警惕而防疫、防御不足、人身体内部的特异和非特异免疫力已有下降、而寄生在野生哺乳纲动物身体中的病毒好几年后已积累了不少侵犯人类的病毒突变、北半球人口多、有些地区卫生条件不太理想、野生动物管理欠佳些、等等、多个因素。已有较强传播性和毒性的病毒、通过像蝙蝠等野生动物跳入、传播入人类、导致人类发生像SARS、MERS、本次的新冠病毒肺炎那样的一个地区的小流行、或世界性大流行。如果2029年（或2030年）的年末只是发生一次不太引起医学界、公众重视和注意的、（或不太明显的）小流行、那么再下次大、小流行将可能发生在2037年（或2038年）的冬季。（大概十几年左右内会发生1-2次。） 全世界各国要设法加强野生动物（尤其蝙蝠等）关联的管理、如果发生疫情要尽可能早并强有力地执行好防治传染病3大原则（以及各种细节）：1.隔离传染病源2.切断传播途径3.保护弱体人群。提前、加强广谱的泛疫苗研究、预防全球性呼吸道传染性疾病的发生、避免人群死亡和经济损失。另外科学界要尽早更加深入细致地做一项、对解明发病机理、对预防治疗学等研究有较为重要参考价值的、冠状病毒感染与肾素-血管紧张素转换酶2（ACE2）等的关系关联及生物演化进化，之基础医学研究。还有科学界，国际社会要开发和动用计算机系统、人工智能等，以及更加权威性的国际委员会等，监视跟踪检测预测预警警示指导指挥像新冠病毒肺炎等传染病之国家乃至世界的预防治疗等。本次新冠病毒肺炎流行结束后，国际社会应好好总结和反省一下，本次全球历时2年左右、病人数高达1亿2千万以上、死亡数高达270万人以上（2021年3月为止中间统计）、经济损失可能高达十几万亿美元、大流行的预防治疗等正确的、成功的、或错误的、失败的经验教训。
（推荐六篇与防止下次全世界大流行、野生动物、广谱疫苗和人工智能等关联的论文等供参考。也许您们大家已经读过了、那对不起了：
(Google English Translation: )
Predict the next respiratory virus infection in the world in about 7 years
HANTAO GU 2021.2.4 draft (first revised at 21.3.20, second revised at 21.3.27)
I predict that the next pandemic or minor pandemic of human respiratory viral infectious diseases in the world may be around December 22 in 2029 (or 2030) (probably around the winter solstice of the lunar solar terms in China, North Korea, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries). ). At this time, due to the position of the planets in the solar system, the revolution of the earth, etc., the northern hemisphere has the shortest sunshine time, the sun's rays are the most oblique, the temperature of the northern hemisphere and the near-surface temperature of warm animals drop, especially the upper respiratory tract temperature of humans and other primates It is below 34 degrees Celsius, and sometimes even below 33 degrees, or lower, and the air is relatively dry, the humidity is low, and the local immunity and defense capabilities are significantly lower. After a few years after 2021, many people have gradually forgotten the dangers of new coronavirus pneumonia, their behaviors have relaxed their vigilance and prevention of epidemics, defenses are insufficient, the specific and non-specific immunity inside the human body has declined, and the parasitic is Viruses in the bodies of wild mammals have accumulated a lot of virus mutations that invade humans over the years, the northern hemisphere has a large population, the sanitary conditions in some areas are not ideal, the management of wild animals is poor, and so on. There are already strong transmission and toxic viruses that jump in and spread into humans through wild animals such as bats, causing humans to have a small epidemic in a region like SARS, MERS, this new crown virus pneumonia, or a worldwide pandemic. popular. If at the end of 2029 (or 2030), there is only one small epidemic (or less obvious) that does not attract the attention and attention of the medical community and the public, then the next major or small epidemic may occur in 2037 ( Or 2038) winter. (It will happen 1-2 times in about ten years.) Countries all over the world should try to strengthen the management of wild animals (especially bats, etc.). If an outbreak occurs, it should be implemented as early as possible and vigorously to prevent and control infectious diseases. Principles (and various details): 1. Isolate the source of infectious diseases 2. Cut off the route of transmission 3. Protect the vulnerable population. Advance and strengthen broad-spectrum pan-vaccine research, prevent the occurrence of global respiratory infectious diseases, and avoid population deaths and economic losses. In addition, the scientific community should do a more in-depth and detailed study as soon as possible, the relationship between coronavirus infection and renin-angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), etc., which has a more important reference value for the understanding of pathogenesis and preventive treatment. Association and biological evolution, basic medical research. There is also the scientific community, the international community should develop and use computer systems, artificial intelligence, etc., as well as more authoritative international committees, etc., to monitor, track, detect, predict, warn, and guide the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases such as new crown virus pneumonia and the world. . After the end of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the international community should summarize and reflect on it. This global event lasted about 2 years, with more than 120 million patients and more than 2.7 million deaths (in the middle of March 2021). Statistics), economic losses may be as high as tens of trillions of dollars, pandemic prevention and treatment, and other correct, successful, or wrong, and failed lessons.
(I recommend six papers related to preventing the next global pandemic, wild animals, broad-spectrum vaccines and artificial intelligence, etc. for reference. Maybe you have already read it, then I’m sorry:
1. Science : Ecology and economics for pandemic prevention
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6502/379
2. Science : Rigorous wildlife disease surveillance
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6500/145
3. Nature：Lessons from the host defences of bats, a unique viral reservoir
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-03128-0
4. Nature：Variant-proof vaccines — invest now for the next pandemic
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00340-4
5. Science : Mosaic nanoparticles elicit cross-reactive immune responses to zoonotic coronaviruses in mice
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6530/735
6. Nature : Pandemic whistleblower: we need a non-political way to track viruses
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00760-2 ）
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