随着时间的推移，论文和专利越来越不可能以将科学和技术推向新方向的方式打破过去。《自然》杂志的一项最新研究在分析了60多年来的4500万篇论文和390万项专利之后，以定量的角度方式给出了这个问题的答案：尽管科学论文与专利的数量在指数增长，但各个学科领域的创新性却在不断下降。虽然科学技术新知识的数量在最近几十年里呈指数级增长，但研究显示，遗憾的是，多个主要领域的进展正在减慢。论文作者分别分析了生命科学与医学、物理学、社会科学和技术这4大领域的研究论文，以及化学、计算通信、医药、电子电气和机械这5类专利。结果，所有领域的科学发现与发明的创新性都在显著下降。
(Baidu Translator: )
Nature: The speed of global scientific research and innovation has been slowing down over the past 60 years, and has entered the "incremental era" Nature: there are more and more papers and patents, but there are fewer and fewer breakthroughs.
With the passage of time, it is increasingly impossible for papers and patents to break the past by pushing science and technology in a new direction. After analyzing 45 million papers and 3.9 million patents over the past 60 years, a new study in Nature magazine gives the answer to this question in a quantitative way: although the number of scientific papers and patents is increasing exponentially, the innovation of various disciplines is declining. Although the number of new scientific and technological knowledge has increased exponentially in recent decades, research shows that, regrettably, progress in many major areas is slowing down. The author analyzed the research papers in the four major fields of life science and medicine, physics, social science and technology, as well as five patents in chemistry, computational communication, medicine, electronics and machinery. As a result, the innovation of scientific discoveries and inventions in all fields has declined significantly.
（百度翻訳：）
Nature：60年来、世界の科学研究革新速度は持続的に減速し、すでに「増量時代」に入っているNature：論文と特許はますます多くなっているが、突破的な成果はますます少なくなっている。
時間が経つにつれて、論文と特許は科学と技術を新しい方向に進める方法で過去を破ることはますます不可能になってきた。ネイチャー誌の最新研究は、60年以上にわたる4500万件の論文と390万件の特許を分析した後、科学論文と特許の数は指数的に増加しているが、各学科分野の革新性は低下しているという定量的な見方でこの問題の答えを出した。科学技術の新しい知識の数はここ数十年で指数的に増加しているが、研究によると、残念なことに、複数の主要分野の進展は減速している。著者はそれぞれ生命科学と医学、物理学、社会科学と技術の4つの分野の研究論文を分析し、化学、計算通信、医薬、電子電気と機械の5種類の特許を分析した。その結果、すべての分野の科学的発見と発明の革新性は著しく低下している。
学术经纬
2023/01/06
论文
论文标题：Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time
作者：Park, Michael, Leahey, Erin, Funk, Russell J.
期刊：Nature
发表时间：2023/01/04
数字识别码：10.1038/s41586-022-05543-x
摘要：Theories of scientific and technological change view discovery and invention as endogenous processes1,2, wherein previous accumulated knowledge enables future progress by allowing researchers to, in Newton’s words, ‘stand on the shoulders of giants’3,4,5,6,7. Recent decades have witnessed exponential growth in the volume of new scientific and technological knowledge, thereby creating conditions that should be ripe for major advances8,9. Yet contrary to this view, studies suggest that progress is slowing in several major fields10,11. Here, we analyse these claims at scale across six decades, using data on 45 million papers and 3.9 million patents from six large-scale datasets, together with a new quantitative metric—the CD index12—that characterizes how papers and patents change networks of citations in science and technology. We find that papers and patents are increasingly less likely to break with the past in ways that push science and technology in new directions. This pattern holds universally across fields and is robust across multiple different citation- and text-based metrics1,13,14,15,16,17. Subsequently, we link this decline in disruptiveness to a narrowing in the use of previous knowledge, allowing us to reconcile the patterns we observe with the ‘shoulders of giants’ view. We find that the observed declines are unlikely to be driven by changes in the quality of published science, citation practices or field-specific factors. Overall, our results suggest that slowing rates of disruption may reflect a fundamental shift in the nature of science and technology.
最新论文的作者是来自明尼苏达大学和亚利桑那大学的3位科学家。为了分析半个多世纪以来的科技发展趋势，研究团队检索了1945-2010年间来自Web of Science数据库的2500万篇研究论文，以及1976-2010年间来自美国专利及商标局数据库的390万项专利。此外，他们还选取了另外4个论文数据库的2000万篇论文进行交叉验证。
