Predict the next respiratory virus infection in the world in about 7 years
HANTAO GU 2021.2.4 draft (first revised at 21.3.20, second revised at 21.3.27)
I predict that the next pandemic or minor pandemic of human respiratory viral infectious diseases in the world may be around December 22 in 2029 (or 2030) (probably around the winter solstice of the lunar solar terms in China, North Korea, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries). ). At this time, due to the position of the planets in the solar system, the revolution of the earth, etc., the northern hemisphere has the shortest sunshine time, the sun's rays are the most oblique, the temperature of the northern hemisphere and the near-surface temperature of warm animals drop, especially the upper respiratory tract temperature of humans and other primates It is below 34 degrees Celsius, and sometimes even below 33 degrees, or lower, and the air is relatively dry, the humidity is low, and the local immunity and defense capabilities are significantly lower. After a few years after 2021, many people have gradually forgotten the dangers of new coronavirus pneumonia, their behaviors have relaxed their vigilance and prevention of epidemics, defenses are insufficient, the specific and non-specific immunity inside the human body has declined, and the parasitic is Viruses in the bodies of wild mammals have accumulated a lot of virus mutations that invade humans over the years, the northern hemisphere has a large population, the sanitary conditions in some areas are not ideal, the management of wild animals is poor, and so on. There are already strong transmission and toxic viruses that jump in and spread into humans through wild animals such as bats, causing humans to have a small epidemic in a region like SARS, MERS, this new crown virus pneumonia, or a worldwide pandemic. popular. If at the end of 2029 (or 2030), there is only one small epidemic (or less obvious) that does not attract the attention and attention of the medical community and the public, then the next major or small epidemic may occur in 2037 ( Or 2038) winter. (It will happen 1-2 times in about ten years.) Countries all over the world should try to strengthen the management of wild animals (especially bats, etc.). If an outbreak occurs, it should be implemented as early as possible and vigorously to prevent and control infectious diseases. Principles (and various details): 1. Isolate the source of infectious diseases 2. Cut off the route of transmission 3. Protect the vulnerable population. Advance and strengthen broad-spectrum pan-vaccine research, prevent the occurrence of global respiratory infectious diseases, and avoid population deaths and economic losses. In addition, the scientific community should do a more in-depth and detailed study as soon as possible, the relationship between coronavirus infection and renin-angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), etc., which has a more important reference value for the understanding of pathogenesis and preventive treatment. Association and biological evolution, basic medical research. There is also the scientific community, the international community should develop and use computer systems, artificial intelligence, etc., as well as more authoritative international committees, etc., to monitor, track, detect, predict, warn, and guide the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases such as new crown virus pneumonia and the world. . After the end of the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the international community should summarize and reflect on it. This global event lasted about 2 years, with more than 120 million patients and more than 2.7 million deaths (in the middle of March 2021). Statistics), economic losses may be as high as tens of trillions of dollars, pandemic prevention and treatment, and other correct, successful, or wrong, and failed lessons.
(I recommend six papers related to preventing the next global pandemic, wild animals, broad-spectrum vaccines and artificial intelligence, etc. for reference. Maybe you have already read it, then I’m sorry:
